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I tried something somewhat like this once.
He'd constantly be like "something big is coming very soon, just wait." And I kept pressing him for "due dates". Like by what date are you 99% sure "it" (like, official announcements that ETs have been living among us disguised as humans since the 60s or whatever) will have happened? Because if he gives a date, I can finally nail him down and say "hey, so, you were wrong, see? The incorrectness of your prediction is some amount of disconfirming evidence right?"
So when he finally did tell me a "due date" for one of his conspiracy theories, I kept that in the forefront of my brain. He said that Trump would arrest "thousands" of high-profile Democrat pedophiles engaged in child sex trafficking within a year after his first term in office started.
Well, it happened! Not really. All the right-wing news outlets vastly misrepresented an FBI sex trafficking bust that had nothing to do with Trump or "high-profile Democrats" as the one and the same massive bust of sex-trafficking high-profile Democrats that Q and Fox News and my conspiracist former friend had predicted. And it fell within the timeframe he predicted.
Of course, it was horse shit. This was no confirmation of his wacky theories. But to him, I was just being willfully blind to the obvious vindication of his prediction.
The lesson I took from that was that the fantasy they live in is far to resilient against actual reality to be phased even a little bit by any actual real-world events. And promising someone bragging rights "if such-and-such of your predictions come to pass" isn't going to pan out for you as well as you might hope. It would require them to have a connection to reality for that to work, and they don't.
Altered Carbon, s01e08, writer Brian Nelson