I want the war in Ukraine to stop, I'm just not confident a direct conflict between Russia and NATO is our best option because we know Putin is willing to order a nuclear strike if he gets desperate, and nobody wants that to happen.

[–] ProcurementCat@feddit.de 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

See, I'm pretty chill about the prospect of "nuclear war" because I know that

The last successful russian nuclear test was 24 October 1990, in the Soviet Union
Nuclear weapons require a lot of maintenance, for example, the neutron generating sources need to be replaced every 4 months
The russian military budget, in no way, since Putin became ruler of russia, was or is able to maintain nuclear weapons
Over the last year, russia repeatedly tried to test a nuclear weapon and failed every time (attempted (and denied) underground test in October 2022, attempted and failed nuclear torpedo test in November 2022, attempted and failed nuclear ICBM test in February 2023)
When Wagner was entering Moscow, Putin was incredibly afraid and immediatly ready to negotiate
Western missile dfenses can stop russian ICBM's

Oh, and in case you didn't notice: It's Putin who wants to invade Poland and the Baltics. Not me.

[–] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 6 points 1 year ago

If even 10% of Russia's nuclear missiles work, we're (the West) in a really bad spot.

That said, if Putin invades a NATO country, I think NATO should use any means necessary to neutralize Russia's nuclear capability.

[–] awwwyissss@lemm.ee 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

You think a failed land grab in Eastern Europe will make the Kremlin suicidal? Come on

[–] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I don't think Putin will attack Poland or anyone in NATO, nor do I think he will use nukes as long as he doesn't risk losing everything.

But we should always assume that he will use nukes if he gets desperate.

[–] awwwyissss@lemm.ee 0 points 1 year ago

No we shouldn't. We can think that's a possibility, but assuming that he will is simply bad policy.

Also, he can't simply "press the red button" because he gets upset.

[–] fist_of_fartitude@sh.itjust.works -1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

We don't know that Putin is willing to order a nuclear strike if he gets desperate. They want everyone to think that because they hope it makes people afraid of interfering in their shitty behavior.

Apparently, it's effective on at least some people.

[–] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

We don't know that he won't. I think he would if his position was threatened, or the Russian people faced certain loss.

[–] fist_of_fartitude@sh.itjust.works 0 points 1 year ago

Works like a charm