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this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2024
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So what is russia waiting to use nuclear weapons? What is holding Putin to just push a button and end the whole thing. I mean US did it, twice, on civilians, no sanctions . And I’m not adding the bombings on Tokio which where even worse.
Winds would blow fallout all over Russia. China/India would break off economic ties. Also nukes wouldn't end the war anyway.
Additionally Ukraine is an asset they want to exploit. Turning it into a nuclear landscape makes it unusable.
See, he knows that if he uses nukes, the US gets dragged in. He also knows we don't have to Nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg, to effectively nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg. We developed the MOAB so that we could get away with big bada booms, with no radioactive or political fallout. He also knows that Russia never developed these weapons.
He's stuck between and immovable object and an unstoppable force.
Nobody's dropping a MOAB on Moscow, because it's dropped out the back of a C-130.
And even if they did it's got less than 4% the yield of a B61, on it's lowest setting, that fits inside an F-35. On it's highest setting the B61 is 30,000 times more yield.
Conventional explosives are toys compared to nukes.
They are toys compared to nukes, but I guarantee if we wanted to use the toys because radiation = more political backlash, we could easily escort two wings of C-130 transports to both cities. When the US wants to bomb something, well there's not a whole hell of a lot that anyone can do to stop it, unfortunately.
Putin is very aware that a nuclear strike would mean immediate intervention by NATO
A nuclear strike is the end of the World.
And a tactical nuke, even if it didn't trigger a wider-scale nuclear conflict, wouldn't help their situation.
If brigades of enemy tanks were closing in on Moscow? Sure, that would be a nasty but effective option. NATO had something similar planned during the Cold War in case the Soviet tanks started pouring down the Fulka Gap.
Yes, a real threat from NATO this time.
Putin will never nuke anything.
Except when he is at the end of the line, and hopefully there is some humanity left in one of the people who hold the keys. Unless all the keys are held by Putler, then nuclear was is inevitable unless someone gets him before the "end of the line" moment comes.
If he's made himself the only validator in Perimeter then he may well get the last laugh in death.
There are of course a lot of reasons why these two situations can't really compare, but an obvious and major difference is that only the US had nukes at the time, so no MAD.
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