this post was submitted on 22 Sep 2024
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The last time I met Evgenia Kara-Murza, it was a grim day in early March. The timing couldn’t have been worse. As we spoke, Alexei Navalny’s coffin was being lowered into the frozen ground in a Moscow cemetery. Meanwhile Evgenia’s husband, Vladimir Kara-Murza, was still incarcerated in a Siberian prison cell almost identical to the one in the Arctic Circle in which Navalny had been found dead, presumed murdered.

The prospects were so grim and the news from Russia and Ukraine so unrelentingly depressing, it feels almost unimaginably miraculous six months later to see Evgenia walk into the lobby of a London hotel, this time with Vladimir right next to her. Six weeks ago, he was in a Siberian gulag. Today, he’s a free man on a trip to London with his wife and their youngest son, nine-year-old Daniel, the result of the largest prisoner exchange between Russian and the west since the cold war.

Most people he met in the Russian prison system, “the police officers, prison officials, judges, prosecutors, they don’t believe in anything”. Most are not pathological sadists, he says, they were just doing a job. “But the Alpha Group, the FSB special unit that was escorting us, I saw ideological hatred. They believe in this stuff and that’s even scarier.”

Kara-Murza’s grasp of history underpins his certainty that Putin’s regime will collapse – quickly and without warning. “That’s how things happen in Russia. Both the Romanov empire in the early 20th century, and the Soviet regime at the end of the 20th century collapsed in three days. That’s not a metaphor, it was literally three days in both cases.” He believes passionately that the best chance of a free and democratic Russia and peace in Europe rests on Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.

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[–] socsa@piefed.social 78 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I mean that's generally how these things go. The regime collapses when it can no longer keep the internal conflict or economic strife quiet. It starts before it ends, but we don't know it's happening until it ends.

[–] deegeese@sopuli.xyz 75 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

It’s like the Hemingway quote about going bankrupt:

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

[–] Tangent5280@lemmy.world 26 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Dont wanna be pedantic, but I think the quote was

"Gradually, and then all at once."

[–] Mirodir@discuss.tchncs.de 5 points 2 months ago

Don't wanna be pedantic (yes I do) but after a little bit of searching, the originally presented quote seems correct (without the "and" though, it seems). Your version is mixed with a common misquote "Slowly at first, then all at once." of that quote.

[–] zabadoh@ani.social 36 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Okay, but will it be replaced by something better, or just the most ruthless, violent and opportunistic who can rush in (heh) and fill the power vacuum first?

[–] _stranger_@lemmy.world 17 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Well, all the top contenders are being defenestrated, and that evolutionary pressure is creating a new niche that will be filled by some kind of smart, quiet, and patient opportunist. Maybe.

[–] Saleh@feddit.org 16 points 2 months ago

Putin was a smart, quiet and patient opportunist. He rose to power because people thought they could install him as a puppet at first. He just then quickly cut the strings and had the puppeteers taken care of.

[–] angrystego@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

We have no way to know that. But when things are bad, it's worth trying out. It can turn out badly, but there's also a chance for a good kind of change - those do happen sometimes as well.

[–] masterofn001@lemmy.ca 35 points 2 months ago (1 children)

3 days....

Special regime change operation.

[–] themadcodger@kbin.earth 13 points 2 months ago

Regime change is illegal and we don't do that!

Furtively pushes Chile, Iran, Iraq, and a host of others back under the rug

[–] Xeroxchasechase@lemmy.world 33 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] TachyonTele@lemm.ee 17 points 2 months ago

Foiled again

[–] 5714@lemmy.dbzer0.com 27 points 2 months ago (1 children)

That's a powerful move after being incarcerated in Siberia.

[–] Saleh@feddit.org 10 points 2 months ago (2 children)

What is Russia going to do about it? Poison him in the UK?

[–] einkorn@feddit.org 13 points 2 months ago

Yes, exactly that.

[–] Astronauticaldb@lemmy.world 0 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Not to burst your bubble, but they've done it before.

[–] DeanFogg@lemm.ee 10 points 2 months ago

I think that might be what he was alluding to

[–] Saleh@feddit.org 3 points 2 months ago

It was a joke. I am well aware of the Novitshok assassination.

[–] Idea@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 2 months ago

I think he knows...

[–] InvertedParallax@lemm.ee 21 points 2 months ago

We didn't care about replacing him.

If he'd been ... remotely fucking human, we would have been fine tolerating him forever so long as he didn't throw kids into blenders.

Now, he chose to give us no choice, he's gotta be gone.

[–] originalucifer@moist.catsweat.com 19 points 2 months ago (1 children)

youre gunna hafta cut the head off this particular dragon, me thinks

[–] NegativeInf@lemmy.world 15 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Oops. Not dragon. Is hydra.

[–] PauloPelle@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Yee; gonna have to go for the heart me thinks.

[–] DeanFogg@lemm.ee 2 points 2 months ago

Whoops hydra heart it's got multiple hearts