Pretty much every sport is going to set some reasonable limits, based on the level of competition. Most are based on maintaining a certain hormone balance, including low testosterone, for at least 1-2 years.

So most of your hypotheticals just cannot happen. And moreover, they just aren't relevant to the arguments people are making. A transgender woman is a woman, regardless of if she transitions medically, or how far along she is. But for certain types and levels of competitions, some restrictions are implemented. Most people are arguing against a) a blanket ban, which seems more fueled by bigotry than data, b) a ban from levels of competition that are more socially-oriented than meaningfully competitive, such as school sports, or c) bans like this one, in chess.