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What would you rate Donald Trump's actual chances of getting more than two full terms as U.S. president? (lemmy.world)

submitted 4 weeks ago by TootSweet@lemmy.world to c/asklemmy@lemmy.ml

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I mean in terms of percentages.

And I don't necessarily mean three full terms. 2.5 terms or 2.1 terms or anything nontrivially more than 2 (like, 10 minutes more doesn't count) would qualify.

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[–] Stovetop@lemmy.world 8 points 4 weeks ago (1 children)

Chance he runs for vice president and wins, with the presidential candidate promising to resign promptly, and is betrayed: 10%

For this one, it also depends on how the Supreme Court rules on the 12th amendment. That amendment states that anyone who is unqualified to be president is likewise unqualified to be vice president, but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not it only applies to people unqualified to be president or if it includes people unqualified to run as president.

I'd say 90% chance the conservative-stacked Supreme Court side with Trump because the conservative justices are originalists and the 12th's interaction with the 22nd was not intended when the 12th was written, but 10% chance they decide he's unqualified to be Vice President so as to keep the door closed for Dems who might try the same thing.

[–] Zak@lemmy.world 6 points 4 weeks ago

It's the wording of the 22nd amendment that makes this a possible outcome (emphasis added):

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice

It could have said "no person shall serve as president for more than two terms" or similar wording, but it does not. I agree with you that conservative justices are likely to use this interpretation.