I'm questioning his expertise. Every time he says "Russia wouldn't do that" Russia does it. And he is still considered an expert despite several claims of how Russia:

Wouldn't try to annex more of Ukraine after Crimea (did it)
Could only have limited military aims in Ukraine (went straight for the capital)
The rest of the former Soviet republics would support Russia (big oof, everyone but Belarus refused to support Russia)

At this point, you just have to say he's gotten everything wrong, but continues to double down

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I mean you certainly sound like an expert on the subject qualified to question his expertise. I also love how you disingenuously ignore the context of what he said and when he said it as if the state of the world has not changed over time. You're free to live in whatever fantasies you want, but sooner or later you are going to have to reconcile them with the real world.

[–] iopq@vlemmy.net 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Mearsheimer is not a military expert, so he has no idea how the war will turn out. Even if we accept he's an expert on politics, the actual situation on the ground will affect the future more. I'd rather listen to what generals say

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

U.S. Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin retired after 20 years of service, including eight years as an armor officer with four combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and 12 years working as a modeling and simulations officer in NATO and U.S. Army concept development and experimentation is a military expert though, and he gives a pretty similar assessment https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/whats-ahead-war-ukraine

RAND also seems to disagree with you https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html CSIS isn't painting a pretty picture either https://www.csis.org/analysis/empty-bins-wartime-environment-challenge-us-defense-industrial-base

Not really sure which generals you're listening too, but I haven't seen a single serious military person say anything even remotely close to what you seem to think is happening.

[–] iopq@vlemmy.net 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

This is all old articles. Of course, the trajectories put out there are the same, but you need to follow what's happening on the ground

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-7-2023

What's possible and not possible will be shown this summer.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 year ago

ISW is not a serious publication. It's a neocon think tank that consistently got everything wrong from the start. If that's what you've been referencing then I see why you're confused. Meanwhile, we already see what's possible and not possible given that Ukrainian offensive has ground to a halt and failed to make any meaningful progress in around a month now. If you can't understand what an utter disaster this is from Ukrainian perspective then I really don't know what else to tell you. This summer will indeed clarify a lot of things for people.