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I believe it too. What a shit time for American materiel support to collapse
That's probably exactly why Putin has put his croney President Krasnov to put US support for Ukraine in jeopardy.
I honestly don't know how to read the situation. Ukraine's fought terrifically, but their status seems far less sustainable even if you discount the Trump stuff. I don't put a lot of stock in these claims that Russia is on the verge of imploding due to the stress of the war, any day now. It is possible, but mostly seems like wishful thinking.
External aid changes the situation a bit, but not ultimately that much because no Western power seems willing to directly intervene with troops. Barring that, the overall situation between the two countries feels a bit like what Shelby Foote said about the US Civil War: "the North fought that war with one hand behind its back... If there had been more Southern victories, and a lot more, the North simply would have brought that other hand out from behind its back."
I hope that Ukraine dismantles Russia's corpse for the best bits. Putin's personal wealth can be used for funding the rebuilding of Ukraine.