Sure. Here's what I think:

I think the Russian GDP is roughly half of Germany's GDP alone, even though Russia is 50 times larger and came with some natural advantages as of a few decades ago (good education system, good fossil fuel reserves, things like that). Russia's entire GDP is quite a bit smaller than just the US yearly defense budget. I don't think single digit percentage swings up or down year by year mean all that much to that one way or another.

I do think it's accurate that Russia's surviving the sanctions overall surprisingly well. I think it's also true that they are close to a breakthrough in Ukraine if the US aid doesn't come through; Ukraine is getting drips of aid from various countries, but a quite successful Russian foreign influence operation has been holding up the Ukraine aid in the American congress for 6 months now, and without it, I think Russia's likely to actually start winning the war within a matter of months or weeks.

I don't think it's a strong advertisement for Russia that they have managed, by mobilizing their entire economic and military might, to penetrate a hundred miles or so across the border of a fairly tiny neighbor of theirs and then get stalled there for 2 years. I remember you saying that that was exactly the plan, so that they could bleed the western economies to death right there at the eastern border of Ukraine, but that doesn't seem believable to me.

I would expect that if the US aid comes through, then Ukraine will either slowly or quickly start winning the war again (although that's a long way away from saying I think they'll win completely if that happens). I think if the aid doesn't come through (or if another massive package gets held up in the future in the same way), then Russia stands a pretty good chance of starting to make some gains, maybe quite significant ones. I don't think that's a good statement about the relative economic / military prowess of Russia as compared with the whole West as a whole though.