this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2024
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The reason they cited in the article is that voters have realized this race is really Biden v Trump, and reality has given Biden a 3-4 point bump.
Another theory I will throw out is adjusting the weighting. Polls infamously under weighted Trumps support in 2016, and since then there has been an effort to "correct" the weighting. However, Trump has consistently underperformed his polls in the primaries, suggesting that the polls might have gone too far in weighting in favor of Trump support. So the current batch of polls might just be a correction, and Biden has been marginally ahead the whole time. But I don't know what I'm talking about, so take this all with a grain of salt.
What is interesting and worrying to me is how hard it's going to be to predict who turns out for this election. Will voters be motivated to prevent another Trump term, or are they just apathetic about choosing between the same two old guys as last time and will sit home? Trump's base is amped up, will democratic enthusiasm get anywhere close to that? How can pollsters accurately predict any of this? It's not like there are a lot of close historical examples to turn to.
Another wrench the polls have no mechanizm to account for that's been thrown in here is the whole Gaza - Israel issue that seems to be currently weaponized against Biden, with no relent in sight. If they can keep convincing people that Biden is the new Hitler, who knows how much apathy or protest votes will be sown in to the Democratic effort. The poll has no way to factor for stuff like that.
what then also blows my mind, is that for anyone "swayed" by that... do they think trump would be better? Hasn't he literally said he wants israell to do MORE?
I think what gets them is that they feel they actively voted for someone that they feel is complicit with genocide. It's that actively supporting part. It sucks that they get hung up on that because unfortunately a vote for not Biden is effectively a vote for Trump, in a very critical election.
Yes, the right wing blindly supports Israel, much more so than most Dems in my opinion. A lot of it has to do with Christianity and Israel needing to exist in order to bring about the rapture, according to the Bible.
Either way, this stuff can turn volatile when say, foreign troll farms push it to the right groups, and I don't think the polls can account for things like that.
As someone on the far left, no, I don’t know a single person who thinks trump would be better. You would have to intentionally not understand the logic behind leftist views in order to think that anyone who holds such beliefs would think that.
There is no compromising when it comes to some issues. Issues such as human rights, minority rights, and most obviously genocide, can only be dealt with in a single way. Human rights must be respected. Minority rights must be respected. Genocide must be prevented at all costs.
To simplify things, if your main desire at the polls is a candidate who will prevent genocide, what difference is there between someone who quietly supports 80% of the genocidal regime, or the person who loudly supports 100% of it. Something like pragmatically saying 20% is wrong because it reduces the value of human life to simple statistics, and accepts a 20% reduction in the most abhorrent crime against humanity as a good thing. It would be like saying something absurd like “the ottomans were the good guys, they genocided less than the nazis who were only bad because their death toll was higher. If we consider the genocide of indigenous peoples in the americas, the nazis are good guys!!1!”
I’d also like to add that people on the left, especially those on the far left, have also have less reason to vote for biden. He is a centrist liberal desperately trying to appear progressive. While he has some policies that I’ve liked, his platform doesn’t represent my (or any libertarian socialist/anarchist) values on any meaningful level. It took me 3 years to notice one of his policies that got through. At that point, it’s just saying “Vote for the lesser evil,” and hoping that the person being told that doesn’t realize you are asking you are still asking them to vote for an objectively evil candidate.