United States | News & Politics

I may be wrong but I figure if it’s on Fox

Oddly enough, polling is the one area where Fox News isn't a complete shit show. 538 has consistently rated them highly throughout the years. In this case, the poll was run by Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. 538's pollster ratings have them at #15, with a 2.8 rating out of 3.0. While it's proper to be skeptical of anything with the Fox name attached, this is one of those areas where you can accept the poll at face value. That said, it's still June and polls this far out are wildly bad at predicting the final outcome. They are better as a barometer of current sentiment and may help candidates to calibrate their messaging and campaigns as we get closer to the election. Also, a 1-2 point "lead" is almost certainly within the margin of error. So, this poll is really saying "it's a dead heat" and drawing anything more of a conclusion is more of a rorschach test than anything.