this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2024
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The reason they cited in the article is that voters have realized this race is really Biden v Trump, and reality has given Biden a 3-4 point bump.
Another theory I will throw out is adjusting the weighting. Polls infamously under weighted Trumps support in 2016, and since then there has been an effort to "correct" the weighting. However, Trump has consistently underperformed his polls in the primaries, suggesting that the polls might have gone too far in weighting in favor of Trump support. So the current batch of polls might just be a correction, and Biden has been marginally ahead the whole time. But I don't know what I'm talking about, so take this all with a grain of salt.
What is interesting and worrying to me is how hard it's going to be to predict who turns out for this election. Will voters be motivated to prevent another Trump term, or are they just apathetic about choosing between the same two old guys as last time and will sit home? Trump's base is amped up, will democratic enthusiasm get anywhere close to that? How can pollsters accurately predict any of this? It's not like there are a lot of close historical examples to turn to.
Another wrench the polls have no mechanizm to account for that's been thrown in here is the whole Gaza - Israel issue that seems to be currently weaponized against Biden, with no relent in sight. If they can keep convincing people that Biden is the new Hitler, who knows how much apathy or protest votes will be sown in to the Democratic effort. The poll has no way to factor for stuff like that.
what then also blows my mind, is that for anyone "swayed" by that... do they think trump would be better? Hasn't he literally said he wants israell to do MORE?
I think what gets them is that they feel they actively voted for someone that they feel is complicit with genocide. It's that actively supporting part. It sucks that they get hung up on that because unfortunately a vote for not Biden is effectively a vote for Trump, in a very critical election.
Yes, the right wing blindly supports Israel, much more so than most Dems in my opinion. A lot of it has to do with Christianity and Israel needing to exist in order to bring about the rapture, according to the Bible.
Either way, this stuff can turn volatile when say, foreign troll farms push it to the right groups, and I don't think the polls can account for things like that.